Core Concepts

Three strategies, one platform

PolyMeta offers three distinct trading profiles — each with different entry timing, risk tolerance, and win rates. Understand how they work so you can pick the one that fits your style.

Strategy profiles

Focus of this section
How each trading profile enters, what it looks for, and what risk level it operates at.

You can switch profiles anytime from the Strategy tab. All parameters are configurable.

The Patient One — Last-Second Sniper

This strategy waits until the final 20 seconds of a window when the outcome is nearly certain. It buys tokens priced at 93c or above, targeting the guaranteed $1.00 redemption. Low risk, low frequency, highest win rate.

Entry window: Last 20 seconds before expiry
Token price gate: 93c+ (configurable)
Win rate: ~98% across 290 verified trades
Best for: Conservative traders who want steady, reliable returns

The Quant — Probe Band Analyst

Uses statistical z-score displacement and Binance lead-lag signals to enter during the 60-90 second probe window. Balances risk and reward with proven performance across 400+ live trades.

Entry window: Probe band at 60-90s, Primary band at 25-60s remaining
Signal gates: Z-score threshold, spread limit, Binance lead-lag confirmation
Win rate: ~80% across 404 verified trades
Best for: Data-driven traders comfortable with moderate risk

The Gung Ho — Momentum Rider

Enters within the first 90 seconds based on sentiment carry from the previous window and momentum confirmation. Higher volume, bigger swings, more aggressive sizing via Kelly fraction.

Entry window: First 90 seconds of a new window
Signal gates: Sentiment threshold, momentum lookback, trend strength
Win rate: ~65-75% estimated
Best for: Aggressive traders who want higher volume and are comfortable with drawdowns

Signals and what they mean

Every market shows a real-time signal: LONG (price likely going up), SHORT (price likely going down), or NEUTRAL (no clear edge). These are computed from multiple data sources:

Price displacement: How far the current price has moved from the window start price
Binance lead-lag: Whether Binance price action is leading Chainlink, suggesting directional continuation
Orderbook context: YES/NO token prices and spread on Polymarket

Key concept A signal alone does not guarantee a good trade. Your chosen strategy filters signals through timing bands, quality gates, and risk controls before recommending an entry.

Why the system sometimes does nothing

A skipped window is often the correct outcome. The system stays out when the spread is too wide, the signal is too weak, the current hour is historically poor, or the entry window has passed. That discipline is a feature, not a bug.